Star Trek: Picard Season 3 theories – week 5

Spoiler Warning: There are spoilers ahead for Star Trek: Picard Seasons 1-3. Spoilers are also present for the following Star Trek productions: The Wrath of KhanThe Next GenerationDeep Space NineVoyager, and Discovery.

We’re a bit late with this week’s theory update – but the latest episode of Picard isn’t out for another couple of hours at least… so I think we got away with it! Barely!

I enjoyed Imposters, and felt that it was a great episode – one of the best that the season has had to offer so far. It was fantastic to welcome back Michelle Forbes as Ro Laren – albeit for the final time! And as the conspiracy angle really ramps up, it feels as though the story could potentially go in some very different directions. And that’s great news for our theory list!

A glimpse behind the scenes!

There are several big changes to the theory list this week – including one “zombie” theory that is coming back from the dead! We’ve also got a couple of confirmations and one debunking to get through.

And as always, that’s where we’ll start.

Confirmed theory #1:
There are changeling infiltrators aboard other vessels.

Two rogue changeling infiltrators.

This one felt obvious as the conspiracy seemed to be growing, but it was still possible that there were only one or two changelings out in the wild! The Deep Space Nine duology Homefront and Paradise Lost saw a changeling infiltrator explain to Captain Sisko that there were only four well-placed changelings… and we saw in other stories that the changelings were less about numbers and far more interested in replacing well-positioned individuals.

This time, however, we learned that there are rogue changelings throughout Starfleet to such an extent that Ro Laren described the entire organisation as being “compromised.” There were at least four changelings aboard the Intrepid – perhaps more – and I think that speaks to there being dozens, hundreds, or perhaps even thousands of changelings spread throughout Starfleet across many ships. Even the admiralty could be compromised.

Confirmed theory #2:
An unannounced character returned!

Ro Laren in Imposters.

I felt it was a solid possibility that we’d get a surprise character inclusion, especially as the crew of the Enterprise-D made a return, and so it proved in Imposters. Ro Laren, who hadn’t been seen since The Next Generation Season 7 episode Preemptive Strike, made a triumphant return to Star Trek – and to Starfleet, too!

Ro’s return isn’t the end of this theory, though, and you can expect to see it remaining on the list. There are dozens of other characters from The Next Generation era that I’d love to welcome back to Star Trek – and in a story with such a strong Deep Space Nine component, characters from that series seem like an especially good fit.

Confirmed theory #3:
Ro Laren was the “prodigal crewman.”

Picard and Ro in The Next Generation.

This was a late addendum to the theory list, as Paramount chooses not to make all of its marketing material available to viewers and fans outside of the United States. Fuck you, Paramount. You useless, “America First” dicks.

Suffice to say that Ro Laren was on my list – along with a dozen others! But she seemed to fit the bill as a “prodigal” crewman with a strong connection to Picard, so I’m claiming this one as a win!

Debunked theory:
All of the other “prodigal crewmen.”

It wasn’t Elnor…

Although I put Ro Laren on my list, she wasn’t the only character I thought seemed plausible to fill that role. I suggested characters like Sela, Thomas Riker, and Lore… and even the possibility that Picard would end up creating a brand-new character to fill this role, as has happened on more than one occasion in the series so far.

There were several characters who felt genuinely plausible – not least those played by actors who we know (or are heavily rumoured) to be involved this season. There were cases to be made for a handful of characters… and cases that I tried hard to make for a few others to round out the list!

So those theories were confirmed and debunked this week.

Now let’s jump into the main theory list, beginning with theories that are brand-new or that saw significant movement as a result of the events of Imposters.

Theory #1:
Vadic is not a changeling.

Vadic’s changeling-hand.

The inverse of this theory was originally on my list, and I called it debunked last week. But I seem to be in a minority of one in interpreting Vadic as not being a changeling, with other outlets seeming to see her changeling appendage and conversation with Floaty McFloatface as confirmation of her own changeling status.

I would like to put forward several points to support this theory!

  • First of all, Vadic’s eccentric demeanour is unlike anything we’ve seen from changelings so far in Star Trek.
  • Secondly, Vadic’s facial scars would be something that wouldn’t happen to a changeling. If they did happen, they’re something we’d expect a changeling would be able to conceal.
  • Thirdly, Vadic hasn’t been seen speaking the clicking language of her crew or the Intrepid changelings.
  • Fourth, if Vadic was a changeling, why would she need to physically cut Floaty McFloatface off her body to have a conversation? They could simply communicate via linking.
  • Fifth, Vadic seems genuinely frightened of Floaty McFloatface.

Theory #2:
Jack Crusher’s hallucinations are connected to the Borg.

Jack is troubled by hallucinations.

At this point, it seems like Jack’s hallucinatory experiences must be connected to the changelings and their conspiracy. But I would like to suggest an alternative explanation: they’re from the Borg, and the feminine voice Jack has been hearing is the Borg Queen’s voice.

There have been multiple references this season to Picard’s assimilation at the hands of the Borg, and so far there isn’t an apparent connection between these references and the changelings’ conspiracy. But why keep bringing it up if it won’t be important? I feel all but certain that there is some kind of greater Borg connection to be revealed – and Jack’s hallucinations could be the key.

Theory #2-A:
Jack Crusher has Borg nanoprobes in his body.

Borg nanoprobes in Season 2.

If I’m right, and Jack’s hallucinations are connected to the Borg, one possible explanation could see Jack having Borg nanites in his system. There are plenty of technobabble ways this could have happened – perhaps they were present from the moment of his conception; dormant nanoprobes from Picard’s body. Or maybe Jack and Beverly used Borg technology aboard their ship, or during one of their medical missions.

We wouldn’t usually associate the colour red with the Borg – and that could count against this theory. Then again, if Jack’s eyes glowed green and his visions were of green tentacles and a green door, perhaps the Borg connection would be too unsubtle!

Theory #3:
The Borg are involved.

Borg drones in First Contact.

We’ve just looked at one possible way in which the Borg could be brought into the story – via Jack Crusher. But there are plenty of other ways to connect the story to the Borg. Firstly, we have the mysterious weapon or technology stolen from Daystrom Station. This could easily be Borg tech, as we know that Starfleet has been heavily involved in researching the Borg, even deploying Borg-derived technology aboard some of their newest starships. Secondly, there could be a changeling-Borg alliance of some kind, as both factions have a vested interest in stopping the Federation.

Again, this comes back to the heavy-handed insertion of Borg stories, particularly about Picard and his assimilation. Why should a story about rogue changelings keep coming back to Locutus and the Battle of Wolf-359 if there isn’t going to be some kind of bigger connection to be made?

Theory #4:
Jack Crusher has changeling DNA… somehow.

Is this Jack’s DNA?

Jack’s story this week delved a little deeper into his hallucinatory experiences, but what was perhaps even more interesting is that we saw two physical changes in him, too. Firstly, Jack’s eyes glowed red for a split second, and secondly, Jack seemed to have a moment of incredible physical strength and fighting prowess.

Jack clearly has no idea what’s going on or why any of this is happening to him. And the question of how Jack might’ve come to have a combination of human and changeling DNA is an open one! Perhaps something happened to him while on one of his medical missions. Regardless, if I’m right then maybe the strand of DNA shown off in the closing credits will be Jack’s.

Theory #5:
Professor Moriarty is the “sophisticated AI” at Daystrom Station.

Professor Moriarty.

Based on the glimpses that we caught of Moriarty in pre-season trailers and images of Daystrom Station seen in Imposters, it seems likely that we’ll encounter Moriarty in the upcoming episode. Access to Daystrom Station is said to be controlled by a “sophisticated AI,” and that description could also apply to Moriarty himself!

Put two and two together and I think we can make the case that Moriarty is the AI, and that somehow he came to be employed as the guardian of Daystrom Station. Whether he’s in that capacity voluntarily… well, I think that’s still to be revealed!

Theory #6:
Daystrom Station is operated by Section 31… and ex-Terran Empress Georgiou will be found there.

Is this just a silly idea?

This one is definitely “out there,” at least in terms of its second part! But I think it would make for a fascinating story if it were to unfold. During Discovery’s third season, Georgiou entered the Guardian of Forever’s portal, being sent to an unknown destination and time period. What if she emerged in the late 24th Century and resumed her work with Section 31? Or perhaps Section 31 didn’t know what to do with Georgiou and placed her in some kind of stasis… aboard Daystrom Station.

Despite the two shows running alongside one another for two full seasons apiece, there hasn’t been a single solid connection between Discovery and Picard… and time’s running out to make one. The shock return of Georgiou could not only be a wonderful crossover, but could prove that there’s still a pathway to dragging the Section 31 series out of development hell.

Theory #7:
At least one more unannounced character will make an appearance!

My money’s on Morn…

It was fantastic to see Ro Laren make a return to Star Trek in Imposters. But will she be the only unannounced character to appear? I’m not so sure!

There were surprises in both of Picard’s first two seasons, so I’m not convinced that we won’t see at least one more character making a return. There have been rumours, theories, and guesses from Trekkies for months as to who may or may not be included… and all I can really say is that Ro’s surprise return has increased the likelihood of this happening.

With the changelings involved in a big way, characters from Deep Space Nine would be perfect to include – but practically anyone from The Next Generation era could show up.

Theory #8:
At least one main character will be killed.

Spock’s funeral in The Wrath of Khan.

The death of Ro Laren has shaken Picard and the crew… but it’s also shaken up this theory! The fundamental question is this: is Ro’s death a harbinger of things to come? Or is it simply a narrative device used to show how high the stakes are? I think there’s a solid case to make that Picard and the crew are in danger.

Television storytelling has changed a lot since The Next Generation premiered, and even main characters can no longer consider themselves to be safe if they wind up in dangerous situations! It would be a challenge to kill off a legacy character in a way that would be satisfying and would feel right – but it would be incredibly bold, and if such a story beat stuck the landing it could pay off a character arc that’s been running for well over three decades.

I made a list of who I thought could be in danger before the season began, and you can find it by clicking or tapping here.

So those theories are new or saw significant movement this week.

Next, as always, I’ll recap all of the other theories that are currently in play. Despite not seeing much attention in Imposters, all of these theories remain on the table as we head into the second half of the season.

Theory #9:
Vadic is a veteran of the Battle of Wolf-359.

The Battle of Wolf-359.

One thing that has confused me about the story so far is that there have been multiple Borg references, and specifically references to the events of The Best of Both Worlds. These references have come in a story about changelings and Dr Crusher’s son – a story that doesn’t have a readily apparent Borg angle.

One way in which this circle could be squared, and these references made to feel meaningful, is if Vadic was herself a veteran of the Battle of Wolf-359. This would give her an immediate connection not only to Picard, Riker, and the crew of the Enterprise-D, but also to Captain Shaw. We could learn, perhaps, that Vadic had been a low-level Starfleet officer or crewman, and that she’d left Starfleet after being traumatised by the events of the battle. She could even turn out to be one of the other survivors of the USS Constance – meaning she’d once served alongside Shaw.

Theory #10:
The rogue changelings are responsible for the mysterious anomaly seen in Season 2.

The anomaly in the Season 2 finale.

It didn’t escape my notice that the events of Season 2 were referenced – albeit incredibly briefly – by Captain Shaw in No Win Scenario. That being said, this theory still feels like somewhat of a long-shot just based on how Picard seems to have moved on from what happened last year.

In short, what I’m suggesting is that the mysterious anomaly that was a big part of the story of Season 2 will turn out to be a weapon of some kind deployed by the rogue changelings, either as part of or as a precursor to their plan to attack Starfleet and the Federation. This would explain Dr Jurati’s comment that the anomaly seemed to be artificial in nature – and it would tie up a massive loose end from last season.

Theory #11:
The rogue changelings are planning attacks on the Klingon Empire and the Romulans.

A joint Federation-Klingon task force during the Dominion War.
Image Credit: JTVFX on YouTube

It wasn’t only the Federation that opposed the Founders during the Dominion War. The Klingons, Romulans, and later a Cardassian resistance movement all played significant roles in preventing the Dominion from conquering the Alpha Quadrant – so it stands to reason that the rogue changelings would be looking to get revenge on these powers, too.

Despite having had two full seasons of Picard already – one of which had a major Romulan theme – we still don’t know much about the state of the galaxy in political terms. Are the Federation, Romulans, and Klingons on friendly terms in this era, or has the Dominion War alliance of necessity fallen apart? After the Zhat Vash plot was exposed, what happened to Federation-Romulan relations? All of these things would be interesting to explore, and the rogue changelings’ plot could lead to such a storyline. For now, though, suffice to say I suspect that the Federation may not be the only target that the rogue changelings have in mind!

Theory #12:
The rogue changelings may also be targeting the Bajorans and Cardassians.

Legate Damar led a Cardassian resistance movement against the Dominion.

These two factions played smaller roles during the Dominion War in some respects, with the Cardassians serving as Dominion allies (and members of the Dominion), and Bajor signing an official non-aggression pact with the Dominion. However, both the Bajorans and Cardassians later opposed the Dominion, and the Prophets – who are strongly aligned with Bajor – arguably turned the tide of the entire war.

If the rogue changelings are on the move, I would suspect that the Federation, Romulans, and Klingons would be their main targets as it was these powers who played the biggest and most obvious roles in the conflict. But Bajor and Cardassia may not be safe.

Again, we don’t know enough about the geopolitics of this era! Bajor may have joined the Federation, and even Cardassia could be under Federation protection. If so, that changes the dynamic.

Theory #13:
The rogue changelings are planning to cripple Starfleet.

The Enterprise-F and other Federation starships as seen in a pre-season trailer.

The precise number of ships that Starfleet has has always been a tad vague, adaptable to different stories. But I think we can safely assume that there are several hundred ships in Starfleet at any one time. Many of these, though, will be science vessels, ships of exploration, or even transport ships. The number of tactical vessels and combat-ready front-line ships is going to be a lot smaller.

With that in mind, a coordinated strike against these ships could cripple the Federation’s ability to defend itself. We already know that the rogue changeling aboard the Titan had a bomb that they used to severely damage the ship – if other rogue changeling operatives are similarly equipped, they could potentially take out Starfleet’s best and most powerful vessels in one fell swoop.

Theory #14:
Vadic backstory ideas.

We still don’t know who Vadic is.

If I’m correct and Vadic isn’t a changeling, then I have some other possible origins in play for the season’s only named villain. I wrote a list months ago, after Vadic first made her debut in pre-season marketing material, and suggested several ways that Vadic could be connected to Star Trek’s past. We looked at one such idea above – that Vadic may be a veteran of Wolf-359 and an ex-Starfleet officer or crewman, but there are a handful of others.

  • A former member of Picard’s crew, perhaps someone who was injured or left for dead while serving under his command,
  • An ex-Borg, either someone who was assimilated while serving on Picard’s crew or perhaps someone from the Artifact in Season 1,
  • An augment, potentially tied to Season 2’s Adam Soong or even Khan himself,
  • A Romulan or ally of the Romulans, with a potential tie to Sela.

Theory #15:
Vadic has put together a “rogues’ gallery” of Star Trek villains.

Vadic with two members of her crew.

I’m close to retiring this theory, to tell the truth, but until we’ve spent a bit more time with Vadic and the masked crew of the Shrike, there’s still a slim chance that it could pan out.

When we first saw Moriarty and Lore in pre-season trailers, I wondered whether they might be members of Vadic’s crew. If so, I theorised that they may just be the tip of the iceberg, and that Vadic may have allies from across The Next Generation era – particularly people who hated Picard and could conceivably want to seek revenge against him. I suggested characters like Sela, Toral, Commodore Oh, and even Thomas Riker as possible candidates.

You can see the full list by clicking or tapping here.

Theory #16:
Vadic’s crew are Jem’Hadar.

A Jem’Hadar warrior as seen in Deep Space Nine.

Another theory that may not pan out! If Vadic is a Founder, she may have brought Jem’Hadar with her, or perhaps the rogue changelings were breeding their own Jem’Hadar. The clicking language spoken by both Vadic’s crew and the changelings aboard the Intrepid could count against this theory – or be a point in its favour!

It stands to reason that, if a group of rogue changelings are making moves against the Federation, that at least some Jem’Hadar could be involved as well. I’d actually quite like to see what an updated Jem’Hadar design could look like in 2023!

Theory #17:
Captain Shaw will be killed.

Shaw in Imposters.

Now that Shaw has had his explosive moment with Picard, revealing his involvement at the Battle of Wolf-359, the end could be near for the “dipshit from Chicago.” We’ve already seen how the Titan having multiple captains on board complicates the story, and if there is to be any kind of “Seven of Nine show” as a spin-off, it makes sense that Shaw might need to be removed from the captain’s chair in order to make that happen.

There’s still a lot of potential in Shaw, and he certainly could have more to contribute to the story. However, there are other potential reasons why killing him off could be on the agenda! If the writers want the impact of killing a major character, but don’t want the controversy of killing off a legacy character, then Captain Shaw could be on the chopping block. His death could raise the stakes significantly as the story has passed its halfway point.

Theory #18:
Someone on Picard’s crew will turn out to be an imposter.

Picard and the crew of the Enterprise-D in a promo photo for Season 5 of The Next Generation.

I think we can safely say that Picard, Riker, the Crushers, Captain Shaw, and Seven of Nine aren’t changelings. But that still leaves several major characters who could potentially have been replaced!

With changelings on the move, basically anyone could have been replaced, and it won’t always be easy to tell. It seems possible that someone like Geordi, Troi, or perhaps even Raffi could be replaced by changeling infiltrators before they link up with Picard and the crew of the Titan, and it may not be possible to know who to trust.

With one changeling infiltrator storyline having already played out, though, it will have to be handled carefully so as not to feel repetitive! Still, I can’t help but wonder if a changeling imposter may be a big revelation in a future episode.

Theory #19:
Not all of Raffi’s messages were from Worf.

Could someone have hacked Raffi’s comms?

As the changeling infiltration story deepens, I think it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that someone involved in the conspiracy – Vadic, perhaps – was sending messages to Raffi claiming to be her handler. These messages may have been false leads, irrelevant information, or other attempts to throw her off the trail. If so, it worked – Raffi wasn’t able to stop the attack on the Federation facility in time.

Narratively speaking, there was a good reason to keep Worf hidden until the end of Disengage: it made his last-second appearance all the more dramatic. But could there be another reason why Raffi’s messages came through in text form, read aloud by a disembodied digital voice? I wonder.

Theory #20:
The absences of characters from Seasons 1 and 2 will be explained.

Could we learn what Dr Borgati is up to?

I was pleasantly surprised to see Laris was included in the season premiere, and while she won’t have a big role in the story of the season, it was great that the story didn’t just dump her as it raced ahead. Due to her importance to the story of Season 2, Laris was perhaps the character who I felt it was most important to include in some way, and I’m glad we got to see her.

But there are still several characters from Seasons 1 and 2 who haven’t been mentioned. Elnor and Soji could easily be name-dropped; a line or two of dialogue could clear up where they are, what they’re doing, and why they can’t join Picard on his current mission. The Borg Queen-Dr Jurati hybrid is a bit more complicated; her self-appointed role as “guardian” of the mysterious anomaly makes it a bit harder to just wave away her disappearance.

I hope we’ll get something that will acknowledge these characters’ absences. All were important in the first two seasons of the show, and simply abandoning them without any kind of goodbye was disappointing at the end of Season 2. If Season 3 could do something to rectify that, I’d appreciate it!

Theory #21:
Several members of La Sirena’s crew have joined Captain Vadic.

The crew of La Sirena at the end of Season 1.

Although we’ve had it confirmed that most of the actors from Seasons 1 and 2 won’t be reprising their roles this time around, when I first saw the masked crew of the Shrike I couldn’t help but wonder… could some of these people be Picard’s friends? Could that explain why Dr Crusher warned Picard to “trust no one” and simultaneously explain their absences?

It would be a stunning revelation indeed if, when the masks are inevitably removed, Picard and the crew find themselves confronting the likes of Soji and Elnor. Maybe this one is a no-hoper because of what we’ve been told by the actors involved… but you never know!

Theory #22:
Picard and his crew will reactivate Lore and Professor Moriarty.

Lore.

Although it seemed at first as though Lore and Professor Moriarty might be on Captain Vadic’s team, the final trailer for Season 3 was cut together in such a way as to suggest that it might be Picard and his crew that are responsible for re-awakening them. I have an idea as to why that might be the case (and we’ll take a look at that in a moment), but for now let’s just say that it seems possible that the story will go down this road.

Last time we saw both Lore and Professor Moriarty, neither posed a threat. Lore had been fully shut down, and Moriarty had been trapped in a holographic storage module, believing himself to be free to explore the galaxy. How either of them could come back is an open question – but they are coming back in some form!

Theory #23:
Picard and his crew need to find synthetic allies/crewmates.

Professor Moriarty.

This theory seems to have moved significantly now that we know the changelings are involved! In brief, I’d suggested that Picard and the crew might be unable to trust organics, and that could explain why they may turn to artificial life forms like Lore and Professor Moriarty to aid them. With the inclusion of the Founders in the story, that possibility feels as if it could’ve just moved one step closer.

If it’s hard or even impossible to detect a changeling infiltrator, then synthetic life-forms may be the only ones that Picard can be certain are who they say they are. That could explain why Picard and the crew might re-activate these one-time enemies. It does raise a pertinent question, though: if Picard needs help from artificial life-forms, why not ask Soji and the Coppelius synths for help?

It does seem like one heck of a coincidence that Lore and Professor Moriarty – both of whom are synthetic – are involved in this story!

Theory #24:
Vadic will be killed by her own portal-weapon.

The USS Titan and one of the portals.

This idea is a pretty simple one: as often happens to villains in stories like these, Captain Vadic will end up being killed by her own powerful weapon. We saw the portal-weapon used against the Titan in Seventeen Seconds, and I can absolutely see a pathway to Picard and the crew capturing it or gaining control of it, and turning it against Vadic.

There can be something poetic about an evil villain being destroyed by their own weapon, so I can’t help but feel that Vadic may meet her end by being spliced through one of her own portals!

Theory #25:
Odo will make an appearance – somehow.

Odo in Deep Space Nine.

I don’t know how I feel about this one. It was sweet to see Worf make reference to Odo in Seventeen Seconds – though the connection could have been clearer, especially for more casual viewers – but I’m not convinced that we need to see Odo for ourselves. The reason for that is simple: the only way we could see Odo is either by re-casting the character or recreating him through some kind of CGI process.

Star Trek has successfully re-cast many characters over the years, so I don’t really take exception to that. But the death of actor René Auberjonois is still recent and fresh in our minds, so bringing Odo back without him just feels… uncomfortable. Although Odo is well-suited to a story in which the changelings are back, I think I’d rather he didn’t appear in person on this occasion. But I wanted to acknowledge that it’s at least a plausible development for the story.

Theory #26:
Lore and/or Professor Moriarty were stolen from Daystrom Station.

The Titan at Daystrom Station as seen in an episode trailer.

I don’t think it’s been confirmed that the Daystrom Institute and Daystrom Station are one and the same, but it’s certainly implied that they’re two parts of the same organisation. The Daystrom Institute, where Dr Jurati worked prior to the events of Season 1, is involved in the development of computer technology within the Federation, and was where Dr Bruce Maddox wanted to disassemble and study Data. We saw in Season 1 that B-4 (an early Data prototype) had been disassembled and was being stored at the Daystrom Institute… and when I heard that “something” had been stolen from there, my thoughts immediately turned to Lore.

Both Lore and Professor Moriarty had been deactivated when we last saw them, and the question of how either will fit into the story of this season is still an open one. I also can’t be sure what Vadic and/or the rogue changelings would want with Lore and/or Moriarty – but given how we saw that synths could be reprogrammed in Season 1, perhaps that could be part of it? Either way, these malevolent artificial life-forms could be dangerous if they allied themselves to the rogue changelings.

Theory #27:
A spin-off series will be announced.

Alex Kurtzman is currently in charge of Star Trek over at Paramount.
Image Credit: StarTrek.com

Sad news came out from Paramount shortly after the episode Seventeen Seconds aired: Star Trek: Discovery has been cancelled and will end after its upcoming fifth season. This moment would have been a good time to announce a new Star Trek project; something to replace Discovery in the line-up. But it didn’t happen.

With Picard also ending, and no confirmation as yet of new seasons beyond what has already been announced for any of the other shows, Star Trek’s future beyond 2024 feels as if it’s hanging in the balance.

I’d already said that this was as much a hope as a theory; I’d love Paramount to announce a new Star Trek series of any kind, but a 25th Century project that would potentially tie in with Picard would be at the top of my list. There are options: a series focusing on Seven of Nine, a revived Section 31 show, or the Starfleet Academy series that has been the subject of many rumours. But so far, nothing has been announced. With all eyes on the Star Trek franchise right now, making such an announcement before Picard comes to an end would be good timing… so watch this space, I guess!

So that’s it!

Dr Crusher performed an autopsy on a dead changeling this week…

As we enter the second half of the season, we sure do have a long and unwieldy list of theories! But that’s okay: there’s plenty of time left to see them all debunked as the story goes in a wildly unpredictable direction! I was thrilled to see Ro Laren come back this week… and sad to see her meet her end. But her death has really communicated the scale of the danger Picard and the crew are facing – and that could mean that not all of them will make it to the end of the season alive and unharmed.

As a final note: I always like to end these theory lists by saying that I do this just for fun. I enjoy writing, I enjoy Star Trek, and spending more time in this world is an escape and an enjoyable distraction for me. But for some folks, fan theories can become frustrating or unenjoyable, especially if they get very attached to a plausible-sounding theory that ultimately doesn’t pan out. I have no “insider information” and I’m not trying to claim that anything suggested above can, will, or must be part of Picard Season 3. I fully expect many of these theories to be debunked and for the season to go in wildly unpredictable directions!

Star Trek: Picard Seasons 1-3 are available to stream now on Paramount+ in the United States and other countries and territories where the service is available, and on Amazon Prime Video in the UK and around the world. The Star Trek franchise – including Picard and all other properties discussed above – is the copyright of Paramount Global. This article contains the thoughts and opinions of one person only and is not intended to cause any offence.

Star Trek: Picard Season 3 theories – week 4

Spoiler Warning: There are spoilers ahead for Star Trek: Picard Seasons 1-3. Spoilers are also present for the following Star Trek productions: The Wrath of KhanThe Next GenerationDeep Space NineVoyager, and Discovery.

No Win Scenario has certainly shaken up the theory list! Although I’d argue it wasn’t quite as enjoyable an episode as Seventeen Seconds had been last week, there were still plenty of fun and exciting moments. The first chapter of Season 3 has now drawn to a close, but in terms of mysteries, the story is just getting started!

If you missed it, I hope you’ll go back and check out my review of No Win Scenario, as I go into detail about different elements of the episode. Some worked exceptionally well, one sequence in particular was incredibly emotional and cathartic, and some others… well, let’s just say there were a few moments that weren’t as enjoyable as the rest! You can find my review by clicking or tapping here.

A cute spacefaring critter.

There are some big changes this week for the theory list! We have four debunkings, one semi-confirmation, and two confirmations, as well as a couple of brand-new theories that are joining the party!

As always, we begin with confirmations and debunkings.

Confirmed theory #1:
Vadic has an additional reason for chasing Jack and the Titan.

Vadic in this week’s episode.

I felt certain that “money” couldn’t possibly be Vadic’s sole motive for chasing Jack Crusher, and while we still don’t know the details, we at least got confirmation this week that there’s more going on here. Vadic is doing the bidding of a changeling for some reason, and the changeling has a particular interest in Jack.

I’m glad that there’s more to Vadic than something as bland and uninspired as looking for a big paycheck. There’s potential now to explore her character a lot more, really flesh out what’s going on and what her connection to the rogue changelings could be, and provide a satisfying end to the mysteries that have been set up so far.

Confirmed theory #2:
Captain Shaw lost someone to the Borg.

Debris in the aftermath of the Battle of Wolf-359.

Or rather, several someones. Captain Shaw saw the crew of the USS Constance – many of whom will have been friends and colleagues – killed during the Battle of Wolf-359 almost forty years prior to the events of Picard Season 3. This explains his characterisation in the show thus far, and particularly the prejudice he’s shown toward Seven of Nine and Picard.

His anger toward ex-Borg is certainly misdirected, especially insofar as Seven is concerned, and I don’t think we can simply give Shaw a pass because of what he went through. The trauma clearly played a huge role in shaping who he is, though, and while it doesn’t justify his treatment of Picard and Seven, at least now we know he isn’t just being a jerk for no reason at all.

As I said in my review, though: I’m not exactly blown away by this revelation, and it feels very familiar to anyone who’s seen Deep Space Nine.

Semi-confirmed theory:
Jack has a connection to Vadic.

Jack in No Win Scenario.

I’m calling this one “semi-confirmed,” because while I didn’t get the details exactly right, there is still a connection of some kind between Jack and Vadic, as noted above. Vadic’s changeling boss is directing her to pursue and capture Jack – for reasons that are still unclear – so there’s more to this chase than simply trying to cash in on a bounty.

At the moment, Vadic is mostly off to one side in her own little narrative box, and has only been able to interact with the crew of the Titan via viewscreen a couple of episodes ago. I hope that there will be time in the episodes ahead to have more interaction between Vadic and Jack in particular.

Debunked theory #1:
The changelings are hiding in the nebula.

It wasn’t changelings after all…

When the Titan’s science officer flagged up “organic” elements present in the nebula, I wondered if that could indicate that at least some of the changelings are nearby. We saw in Deep Space Nine that the changelings’ homeworld was hidden inside a nebula, so it seemed like a reasonable assumption that the rogue changelings might also use a nebula to keep their base out of sight.

However, it didn’t pan out – and I think it would have felt like quite the contrivance if the Titan had stumbled on the changelings’ hideout seemingly by accident!

Debunked theory #2:
The changelings are the nebula.

The nebula.

For the same reason given above, it didn’t seem impossible to think that the changelings could have actually formed the nebula themselves. We saw in Deep Space Nine that changelings are able to exist in a gaseous state, and appearing as a random, unwelcoming phenomenon on the outskirts of a minor star system could have been a great hiding place!

The story that we got, however, was truly excellent, and one that managed to recapture that occasionally elusive sense of “Star Trek.” Seeing the spacefaring life-forms being born was an incredibly sweet moment, and far better than if the nebula had turned out to be a group of linked changelings!

Debunked theory #3:
Riker is a changeling.

Captain Riker at the end of No Win Scenario.

I wondered about this last week, based mostly on random pieces of evidence that had been scattered across the trailers and the first couple of episodes. In short, I wondered if Riker may have been replaced by a changeling while beaming back to the Titan from the Eleos. We caught a glimpse of Riker seemingly imprisoned in an earlier trailer, and since we know there’s a bigger conspiracy in the offing, it seemed possible that the changelings might seek to replace a starship captain.

However, Riker’s story in No Win Scenario clearly disproves this idea! Riker was dejected for much of the episode, and spent a long time trying to find the right words to leave behind in the event that the Titan didn’t make it.

Debunked theory #4:
Vadic is a changeling.

Vadic on the bridge of the Shrike.

Vadic has a changeling appendage – but I think it’s pretty clear now that she isn’t a changeling herself. This shakes things up in more ways than one, as the relationship between Vadic and the rogue changelings’ conspiracy isn’t cut and dry; there may be conflicting ideas and motivations here.

Still, when we knew that the changelings were involved – and that Vadic was in contact with a changeling spy embedded aboard the Titan – it seemed like a reasonable assumption that she could’ve been a changeling herself!

So those theories have been debunked or confirmed.

Now it’s time for the main event: the theory list! We’ll start with new theories and theories that saw movement as a result of events in No Win Scenario.

Theory #1:
Vadic is a veteran of the Battle of Wolf-359.

The Borg cube that was involved in the battle.

One thing that has confused me about the story so far is that there have been multiple Borg references, and specifically references to the events of The Best of Both Worlds. These references have come in a story about changelings and Dr Crusher’s son – a story that doesn’t have a readily apparent Borg angle.

One way in which this circle could be squared, and these references made to feel meaningful, is if Vadic was herself a veteran of the Battle of Wolf-359. This would give her an immediate connection not only to Picard, Riker, and the crew of the Enterprise-D, but also to Captain Shaw. We could learn, perhaps, that Vadic had been a low-level Starfleet officer or crewman, and that she’d left Starfleet after being traumatised by the events of the battle. She could even turn out to be one of the other survivors of the USS Constance – meaning she’d once served alongside Shaw.

Theory #2:
Jack Crusher has changeling DNA… somehow.

Whose DNA is this?

Why do the changelings want Jack so badly? Why does Jack have strange visions of blood-red vines and an opening door? And why do we prominently see what appears to be a strand of DNA in the closing credits? If I’m right, then Jack will – somehow – have a combination of human and changeling DNA. How this happened… well, he and Dr Crusher have spent years on the front lines delivering medical supplies and taking risks. Perhaps something that happened to them on their travels brought Jack into contact with a changeling.

I don’t think that Jack knows what’s going on, and if such a connection were revealed, it would probably be as much of a surprise to him as it will be to us as the audience!

Having established Jack as the son of Dr Crusher and Picard, it would be difficult to say that he is a changeling; an imposter. But maybe that’s the direction the story will go. I suspect it may be subtler than that, though, and just like Vadic has a changeling hand, Jack may have some kind of changeling DNA without actually being a changeling himself.

Theory #3:
The rogue changelings are responsible for the mysterious anomaly seen in Season 2.

The anomaly in the Season 2 finale.

It didn’t escape my notice that the events of Season 2 were referenced – albeit incredibly briefly – by Captain Shaw in No Win Scenario. That being said, this theory still feels like somewhat of a long-shot just based on how Picard seems to have moved on from what happened last year.

In short, what I’m suggesting is that the mysterious anomaly that was a big part of the story of Season 2 will turn out to be a weapon of some kind deployed by the rogue changelings, either as part of or as a precursor to their plan to attack Starfleet and the Federation. This would explain Dr Jurati’s comment that the anomaly seemed to be artificial in nature – and it would tie up a massive loose end from last season.

Theory #4:
The rogue changelings are planning attacks on the Klingon Empire and the Romulans.

A joint Federation-Klingon task force during the Dominion War.
Image Credit: JTVFX on YouTube

It wasn’t only the Federation that opposed the Founders during the Dominion War. The Klingons, Romulans, and later a Cardassian resistance movement all played significant roles in preventing the Dominion from conquering the Alpha Quadrant – so it stands to reason that the rogue changelings would be looking to get revenge on these powers, too.

Despite having had two full seasons of Picard already – one of which had a major Romulan theme – we still don’t know much about the state of the galaxy in political terms. Are the Federation, Romulans, and Klingons on friendly terms in this era, or has the Dominion War alliance of necessity fallen apart? After the Zhat Vash plot was exposed, what happened to Federation-Romulan relations? All of these things would be interesting to explore, and the rogue changelings’ plot could lead to such a storyline. For now, though, suffice to say I suspect that the Federation may not be the only target that the rogue changelings have in mind!

Theory #5:
The rogue changelings may also be targeting the Bajorans and Cardassians.

Legate Damar led a Cardassian resistance movement against the Dominion.

These two factions played smaller roles during the Dominion War in some respects, with the Cardassians serving as Dominion allies (and members of the Dominion), and Bajor signing an official non-aggression pact with the Dominion. However, both the Bajorans and Cardassians later opposed the Dominion, and the Prophets – who are strongly aligned with Bajor – arguably turned the tide of the entire war.

If the rogue changelings are on the move, I would suspect that the Federation, Romulans, and Klingons would be their main targets as it was these powers who played the biggest and most obvious roles in the conflict. But Bajor and Cardassia may not be safe.

Again, we don’t know enough about the geopolitics of this era! Bajor may have joined the Federation, and even Cardassia could be under Federation protection. If so, that changes the dynamic.

Theory #6:
There are changeling infiltrators aboard dozens of Starfleet vessels.

A Starfleet armada seen in Season 2.

No offence to Captain Shaw and Commander Seven… but the Titan isn’t exactly the most important ship in the fleet. Prior to Picard and Riker commandeering it for their off-the-books rescue mission, it was a minor exploratory vessel that doesn’t seem to have played a significant role in any major event, nor is it at the heart of the Federation’s defensive strategy.

Despite the ship’s relative unimportance, however, the rogue changelings still planted a spy aboard the Titan. If a ship like the Titan has an embedded changeling, it stands to reason that other ships do, too – perhaps a great many others. Their missions may be to sabotage the ships, either subtly, as we saw with the Titan, or more explosively…

Theory #7:
The rogue changelings are planning to cripple Starfleet.

A clip from a pre-season trailer showed a Federation starship suffering damage to one of its nacelles.

The precise number of ships that Starfleet has has always been a tad vague, adaptable to different stories. But I think we can safely assume that there are several hundred ships in Starfleet at any one time. Many of these, though, will be science vessels, ships of exploration, or even transport ships. The number of tactical vessels and combat-ready front-line ships is going to be a lot smaller.

With that in mind, a coordinated strike against these ships could cripple the Federation’s ability to defend itself. We already know that the rogue changeling aboard the Titan had a bomb that they used to severely damage the ship – if other rogue changeling operatives are similarly equipped, they could potentially take out Starfleet’s best and most powerful vessels in one fell swoop.

Theory #8:
Vadic backstory ideas.

We still don’t know who Vadic is.

We’ve ruled out the idea that Vadic is a changeling, but I still have some other possible origins in play for the season’s only named villain. I wrote a list months ago, after Vadic first made her debut in pre-season marketing material, and suggested several ways that Vadic could be connected to Star Trek’s past. We looked at one such idea above – that Vadic may be a veteran of Wolf-359 and an ex-Starfleet officer or crewman, but there are a handful of others.

  • A former member of Picard’s crew, perhaps someone who was injured or left for dead while serving under his command,
  • An ex-Borg, either someone who was assimilated while serving on Picard’s crew or perhaps someone from the Artifact in Season 1,
  • An augment, potentially tied to Season 2’s Adam Soong or even Khan himself,
  • A Romulan or ally of the Romulans, with a potential tie to Sela,
  • A member of Insurrection’s Son’a.

Theory #9:
Vadic has put together a “rogues’ gallery” of Star Trek villains.

Vadic with two members of her crew.

I’m close to retiring this theory, to tell the truth, but until we’ve spent a bit more time with Vadic and the masked crew of the Shrike, there’s still a slim chance that it could pan out.

When we first saw Moriarty and Lore in pre-season trailers, I wondered whether they might be members of Vadic’s crew. If so, I theorised that they may just be the tip of the iceberg, and that Vadic may have allies from across The Next Generation era – particularly people who hated Picard and could conceivably want to seek revenge against him. I suggested characters like Sela, Toral, Commodore Oh, and even Thomas Riker as possible candidates.

You can see the full list by clicking or tapping here.

Theory #10:
Vadic’s crew are Jem’Hadar.

A Jem’Hadar warrior as seen in Deep Space Nine.

Another theory that may not pan out! Now that we know Vadic is almost certainly not a changeling, the likelihood of this one seems to have dropped dramatically. In short, I speculated last time that if Vadic is a Founder, she may have brought Jem’Hadar with her, or perhaps even that the rogue changelings were breeding their own Jem’Hadar.

Given that there is a connection, though, and that Vadic has a changeling (or part of a changeling) aboard her vessel, we could still potentially see some Jem’Hadar warriors amongst her crew.

Theory #11:
The Borg are involved.

The first Borg drone ever seen in Star Trek.

With a surprisingly large portion of No Win Scenario taken up with telling stories about the Borg, perhaps the chances of a bigger Borg connection have just increased! After all, why should the narrative keep returning to the Borg if there isn’t something else going on to make such inclusions relevant?

Last week, I suggested two possibilities for Borg involvement. Firstly, the rogue changelings may have stolen Borg technology from Daystrom Station – tech that could even be from the Artifact. This technology may be part of how they plan to attack Starfleet. Secondly, it doesn’t seem entirely impossible for the rogue changelings to have allied themselves with the Borg – after all, both factions would have reasons for wanting to see the Federation and Starfleet weakened or defeated, and the Borg have shown a willingness to make alliances before.

Theory #12:
Captain Shaw will be killed.

Shaw in No Win Scenario.

Now that Shaw has had his explosive moment with Picard, revealing his involvement at the Battle of Wolf-359, the end could be near for the “dipshit from Chicago.” We’ve already seen how the Titan having multiple captains on board complicates the story, and if there is to be any kind of “Seven of Nine show” as a spin-off, it makes sense that Shaw might need to be removed from the captain’s chair in order to make that happen.

There’s still a lot of potential in Shaw, and he certainly could have more to contribute to the story. However, there are other potential reasons why killing him off could be on the agenda! If the writers want the impact of killing a major character, but don’t want the controversy of killing off a legacy character, then Captain Shaw could be on the chopping block. His death could raise the stakes significantly as the story approaches its halfway point.

Theory #13:
Someone on Picard’s crew will turn out to be an imposter.

Picard and the crew of the Enterprise-D in a promo photo for Season 2 of The Next Generation.

So we’ve ruled out the likes of Riker and Vadic being changelings, and I think we can safely say that Picard, the Crushers, Captain Shaw, and Seven of Nine aren’t changelings either. But that still leaves several major characters who could potentially have been replaced! The title of the upcoming episode is Imposters, which could also be a hint!

With changelings on the move, basically anyone could have been replaced, and it won’t always be easy to tell. It seems possible that someone like Geordi, Troi, or perhaps even Raffi could be replaced by changeling infiltrators before they link up with Picard and the crew of the Titan, and it may not be possible to know who to trust.

With one changeling infiltrator storyline having already played out, though, it will have to be handled carefully so as not to feel repetitive! Still, I can’t help but wonder if a changeling imposter may be a big revelation in a future episode.

Theory #14:
Not all of Raffi’s messages were from Worf.

Could someone have hacked Raffi’s comms?

As the changeling infiltration story deepens, I think it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that someone involved in the conspiracy – Vadic, perhaps – was sending messages to Raffi claiming to be her handler. These messages may have been false leads, irrelevant information, or other attempts to throw her off the trail. If so, it worked – Raffi wasn’t able to stop the attack on the Federation facility in time.

Narratively speaking, there was a good reason to keep Worf hidden until the end of Disengage: it made his last-second appearance all the more dramatic. But could there be another reason why Raffi’s messages came through in text form, read aloud by a disembodied digital voice? I wonder.

So those theories are new or moved significantly in No Win Scenario.

Now, in order to keep the theories all in one place, I’ll recap everything else that’s currently in play. These theories weren’t touched in this week’s episode.

Theory #15:
The absences of characters from Seasons 1 and 2 will be explained.

Could we learn why Soji isn’t going to join Picard this time around?

I was pleasantly surprised to see Laris was included in the season premiere, and while she won’t have a big role in the story of the season, it was great that the story didn’t just dump her as it raced ahead. Due to her importance to the story of Season 2, Laris was perhaps the character who I felt it was most important to include in some way, and I’m glad we got to see her.

But there are still several characters from Seasons 1 and 2 who haven’t been mentioned. Elnor and Soji could easily be name-dropped; a line or two of dialogue could clear up where they are, what they’re doing, and why they can’t join Picard on his current mission. The Borg Queen-Dr Jurati hybrid is a bit more complicated; her self-appointed role as “guardian” of the mysterious anomaly makes it a bit harder to just wave away her disappearance.

I hope we’ll get something that will acknowledge these characters’ absences. All were important in the first two seasons of the show, and simply abandoning them without any kind of goodbye was disappointing at the end of Season 2. If Season 3 could do something to rectify that, I’d appreciate it!

Theory #16:
There will be at least one unannounced character returning!

Could it be Harry Kim?

There have been theories and guesses from Trekkies for basically a whole year about which other characters from The Next Generation era could appear in Season 3. I don’t claim to know who might be included – but it feels like a pretty solid guess to say that someone from The Next GenerationDeep Space Nine, and/or Voyager will put in an appearance.

This could be a simple cameo, or an appearance similar to those seen in episodes like Encounter at Farpoint and Caretaker. Or there could be a real hidden surprise, with a character basically joining Picard’s mission. We didn’t really know the extent of Seven of Nine’s involvement in Season 1 until it happened, nor the extent of Brent Spiner’s roles in Seasons 1 and 2… so there’s at least the possibility of some kind of big surprise!

Theory #17:
Several members of La Sirena’s crew have joined Captain Vadic.

The crew of La Sirena at the end of Season 1.

Although we’ve had it confirmed that most of the actors from Seasons 1 and 2 won’t be reprising their roles this time around, when I first saw the masked crew of the Shrike I couldn’t help but wonder… could some of these people be Picard’s friends? Could that explain why Dr Crusher warned Picard to “trust no one” and simultaneously explain their absences?

It would be a stunning revelation indeed if, when the masks are inevitably removed, Picard and the crew find themselves confronting the likes of Soji and Elnor. Maybe this one is a no-hoper because of what we’ve been told by the actors involved… but you never know!

Theory #18:
At least one main character will be killed.

A Starfleet coffin.

It feels like a solid possibility that at least one main character won’t make it to the end of the season. Television storytelling has changed a lot since The Next Generation premiered, and even main characters can no longer consider themselves to be safe if they wind up in dangerous situations!

It would be a challenge to kill off a legacy character in a way that would be satisfying and would feel right – but it would be incredibly bold, and if such a story beat stuck the landing, it could succeed at either setting up the story or paying off a season-long character arc.

I made a list of who I thought could be in danger before the season began, and you can find it by clicking or tapping here.

Theory #19:
Picard and his crew will reactivate Lore and Professor Moriarty.

Lore is coming back…

Although it seemed at first as though Lore and Professor Moriarty might be on Captain Vadic’s team, the final trailer for Season 3 was cut together in such a way as to suggest that it might be Picard and his crew that are responsible for re-awakening them. I have an idea as to why that might be the case (and we’ll take a look at that in a moment), but for now let’s just say that it seems possible that the story will go down this road.

Last time we saw both Lore and Professor Moriarty, neither posed a threat. Lore had been fully shut down, and Moriarty had been trapped in a holographic storage module, believing himself to be free to explore the galaxy. How either of them could come back is an open question – but they are coming back in some form!

Theory #20:
Picard and his crew need to find synthetic allies/crewmates.

Professor Moriarty.

This theory seems to have moved significantly now that we know the changelings are involved! In brief, I’d suggested that Picard and the crew might be unable to trust organics, and that could explain why they may turn to artificial life forms like Lore and Professor Moriarty to aid them. With the inclusion of the Founders in the story, that possibility feels as if it could’ve just moved one step closer.

If it’s hard or even impossible to detect a changeling infiltrator, then synthetic life-forms may be the only ones that Picard can be certain are who they say they are. That could explain why Picard and the crew might re-activate these one-time enemies. It does raise a pertinent question, though: if Picard needs help from artificial life-forms, why not ask Soji and the Coppelius synths for help?

It does seem like one heck of a coincidence that Lore and Professor Moriarty – both of whom are synthetic – are involved in this story!

Theory #21:
Vadic will be killed by her own portal-weapon.

The USS Titan and one of the portals.

This idea is a pretty simple one: as often happens to villains in stories like these, Captain Vadic will end up being killed by her own powerful weapon. We saw the portal-weapon used against the Titan in Seventeen Seconds, and I can absolutely see a pathway to Picard and the crew capturing it or gaining control of it, and turning it against Vadic.

There can be something poetic about an evil villain being destroyed by their own weapon, so I can’t help but feel that Vadic may meet her end by being spliced through one of her own portals!

Theory #22:
Odo will make an appearance – somehow.

Odo in Deep Space Nine.

I don’t know how I feel about this one. It was sweet to see Worf make reference to Odo in Seventeen Seconds – though the connection could have been clearer, especially for more casual viewers – but I’m not convinced that we need to see Odo for ourselves. The reason for that is simple: the only way we could see Odo is either by re-casting the character or recreating him through some kind of CGI process.

Star Trek has successfully re-cast many characters over the years, so I don’t really take exception to that. But the death of actor René Auberjonois is still recent and fresh in our minds, so bringing Odo back without him just feels… uncomfortable. Although Odo is well-suited to a story in which the changelings are back, I think I’d rather he didn’t appear in person on this occasion. But I wanted to acknowledge that it’s at least a plausible development for the story.

Theory #23:
Lore and/or Professor Moriarty were stolen from Daystrom Station.

Lore in his first appearance.

I don’t think it’s been confirmed that the Daystrom Institute and Daystrom Station are one and the same, but it’s certainly implied that they’re two parts of the same organisation. The Daystrom Institute, where Dr Jurati worked prior to the events of Season 1, is involved in the development of computer technology within the Federation, and was where Dr Bruce Maddox wanted to disassemble and study Data. We saw in Season 1 that B-4 (an early Data prototype) had been disassembled and was being stored at the Daystrom Institute… and when I heard that “something” had been stolen from there, my thoughts immediately turned to Lore.

Both Lore and Professor Moriarty had been deactivated when we last saw them, and the question of how either will fit into the story of this season is still an open one. I also can’t be sure what Vadic and/or the rogue changelings would want with Lore and/or Moriarty – but given how we saw that synths could be reprogrammed in Season 1, perhaps that could be part of it? Either way, these malevolent artificial life-forms could be dangerous if they allied themselves to the rogue changelings.

Theory #24:
A spin-off series will be announced.

Alex Kurtzman is currently in charge of Star Trek over at Paramount.

Sad news came out from Paramount shortly after the episode Seventeen Seconds aired: Star Trek: Discovery has been cancelled and will end after its upcoming fifth season. This moment would have been a good time to announce a new Star Trek project; something to replace Discovery in the line-up. But it didn’t happen.

With Picard also ending, and no confirmation as yet of new seasons beyond what has already been announced for any of the other shows, Star Trek’s future beyond 2024 feels as if it’s hanging in the balance.

I’d already said that this was as much a hope as a theory; I’d love Paramount to announce a new Star Trek series of any kind, but a 25th Century project that would potentially tie in with Picard would be at the top of my list. There are options: a series focusing on Seven of Nine, a revived Section 31 show, or the Starfleet Academy series that has been the subject of many rumours. But so far, nothing has been announced. With all eyes on the Star Trek franchise right now, making such an announcement before Picard comes to an end would be good timing… so watch this space, I guess!

So that’s it!

What’s going on here?

Those are all of the theories that we have in play as we approach the midpoint of the season. There’s still a lot of time for the story to go in completely different directions, though, and even to introduce new characters and factions if it’s done right. We’ve started to see the beginnings of some mysteries being unravelled – but others, such as what may be causing Jack’s mysterious hallucinations, are just getting started!

As a final note: I always like to end these theory lists by saying that I do this just for fun. I enjoy writing, I enjoy Star Trek, and spending more time in this world is an escape and an enjoyable distraction for me. But for some folks, fan theories can become frustrating or unenjoyable, especially if they get very attached to a plausible-sounding theory that ultimately doesn’t pan out. I have no “insider information” and I’m not trying to claim that anything suggested above can, will, or must be part of Picard Season 3. I fully expect many of these theories to be debunked and for the season to go in wildly unpredictable directions!

Star Trek: Picard Seasons 1-3 are available to stream now on Paramount+ in the United States and other countries and territories where the service is available, and on Amazon Prime Video in the UK and around the world. The Star Trek franchise – including Picard and all other properties discussed above – is the copyright of Paramount Global. This article contains the thoughts and opinions of one person only and is not intended to cause any offence.

Star Trek: Picard Episode Review – Season 3, Episode 4: No Win Scenario

Spoiler Warning: There are spoilers ahead for Star Trek: Picard Seasons 1-3. Spoilers are also present for the following Star Trek productions: The Wrath of Khan, The Next Generation, Deep Space Nine, and Voyager.

The title of this week’s episode annoyed me! A “no-win scenario” should be written thus, with a hyphen, but Paramount opted not to abide by that particular rule of grammar. Still, I suppose I’m not one to talk!

After Seventeen Seconds had been fantastic across the board last week, I felt the quality dip slightly this time as No Win Scenario couldn’t quite reach that same level. There were a couple of moments where the conversations characters had felt like they were taken from a soap-opera, an incredibly rushed rationalisation for what was going on, and a big, explosive moment as the episode reached its climax that, for reasons we’ll get into, didn’t quite have the impact it was going for.

Picard exits the holodeck.

After last week’s episode ended with Picard and Riker experiencing a major falling-out, I was expecting that No Win Scenario would find a way to bring them back together. However, I wasn’t expecting it to happen so quickly, nor for the conflict to just… fizzle out. Don’t get me wrong, I’m always going to be happier to see Picard and Riker on friendly terms and working in common cause, but after such a spectacular blow-up last week that saw Picard banished from the bridge… I expected some kind of apology-come-resolution to settle this argument. No Win Scenario didn’t really deliver that, at least not in a meaningful way, and this aspect of the story – which had been a major part of last week’s episode and its cliffhanger ending – felt unsatisfying.

As happened more than once in Season 2, I felt that No Win Scenario was in a rush to bring this cliffhanger to a resolution so that there’d be enough time left to crack on with the rest of the story. While it’s possible that there will be ramifications for Picard and Riker if things settle down aboard the Titan, and we could re-visit this character conflict in a future episode to get a more conclusive ending, based on what we saw in No Win Scenario I was left feeling a bit empty; something significant was missing from the way this conflict wrapped up.

Picard and Riker’s argument seemed to fizzle out.

That last sentence also applies to my feelings on the conflict with Captain Vadic, and although the fight between the Titan and the Shrike came at the tail end of the episode, we’ll jump ahead to look at that next.

The use of an asteroid as a weapon was visually spectacular and just plain cool, with the animation work used to bring it to life being absolutely outstanding. There was a kind of poetic symmetry to Riker using the tractor-beam as a weapon after Vadic had done the same in Disengage a couple of weeks ago.

The Shrike was heavily damaged by Riker’s asteroid attack.

But here’s the problem that I have with the way this conflict came across: we still don’t know Vadic. We want to see her stopped and we don’t want her to succeed – but that’s only because we don’t want to see Jack Crusher or our other heroes harmed or captured. At this point in the story, Vadic is no-one… we don’t know who she is, what she wants, what her connection is to the rogue changelings and their scheme, or really anything else about her. She’s an over-the-top villain, almost a caricature of someone like Khan… and seeing her defeated just didn’t feel like it had any significance except insofar as it allowed the Titan to escape.

Think about some of the best, nastiest Star Trek villains from the franchise’s past. By the time the Battle of the Mutara Nebula ended in The Wrath of Khan, we didn’t just want Kirk to win – we wanted Khan to lose. Likewise for villains like Sela, Gul Dukat, or the Kelvin timeline’s Admiral Marcus – their stories were written in such a way that we wanted to see them beaten, defeated, and left for dead. I don’t feel any of that toward Vadic right now, and the reason is simple: I don’t know who she is or what she wants. She’s a speedbump; an obstacle for our heroes to overcome. I want to see her stopped, but only by default.

Picard Season 3 hasn’t earned a moment like this yet.

No Win Scenario set up the Shrike’s return and had the ship standing in the Titan’s way as Riker and Picard tried to guide the ship to safety. And this moment felt tense and exciting, with a genuine threat to our heroes. Jack in particular seemed to be in danger; with no shields to speak of, he could have been beamed away by Vadic, perhaps.

But in terms of Vadic herself… her defeat on this occasion felt unimportant and unearned. Sure, the Titan needed to get the Shrike out of the way to make an escape. But beyond that, seeing Vadic and her crew scrambling around on their damaged vessel just didn’t make much of an impression. Earlier in the episode we started the process of unravelling the Vadic mystery… but we haven’t made enough progress on that front for her to feel like a fully-rounded, fleshed-out character just yet. Unless and until that happens, these moments will continue to fall flat.

The Titan launches an asteroid at the Shrike.

A villain created to be as over-the-top as Vadic is supposed to be someone we can “love to hate.” And I’m hopeful that that feeling will come in the episodes ahead; we aren’t yet at the halfway point. But at this point in the story, Vadic isn’t someone I love to hate. In fact, she isn’t someone I “hate” at all, she’s someone who I don’t yet understand.

Had this moment with the Shrike and the asteroid come later, after we’d learned more about Vadic and what this conspiracy is that Picard and the crew will need to stop, then maybe her defeat in the moment would feel more significant and more impactful. At this point in the story, though, it didn’t. We’ll see more of Vadic, of this I’m sure, but there’s also a risk in defeating a villain at an early stage. The Shrike was incredibly intimidating at first… but we’ve already seen that it can be defeated. That could potentially lower the stakes and reduce the tension when we inevitably encounter Vadic further down the road.

We’ve already seen how Vadic can be beaten. Will that make the next encounter feel less tense?

With all that being said, there was a very interesting aspect to Vadic’s story this week. We knew, thanks to the presence of a changeling infiltrator aboard the Titan, that Vadic had some kind of relationship with the rogue changelings that Worf and Raffi uncovered in last week’s episode. I wasn’t alone in having speculated that Vadic might be a changeling herself – but it seems that isn’t the case. Maybe she truly is the bounty hunter she claimed to be – but there’s a close working relationship with at least one changeling that will be fascinating to see unfold.

As a concept, the idea of a changeling forming a body part is something that Star Trek has never really explored before – perhaps it was too gory for television networks in the ’60s or the ’90s to consider! But the idea that Vadic may have a kind of symbiotic relationship with a changeling is an interesting one, and if we learn, perhaps, that Vadic has had a hand amputated due to a wartime injury or a horrible accident, there’s a chance for such a story point to lead to some of that understanding that’s currently absent from her characterisation.

Vadic has a changeling-hand.

Another interesting aspect of the conversation Vadic had with the changeling was how fearful she seemed to be. In her first appearance in Disengage – her most significant thus far – Vadic had a kind of chaotic energy; a bizarre, unsettling, almost carefree approach. She knew that she was in a dominant position thanks to the power of her ship, but she revelled in the chase and in hunting her prey.

Contrast how she spoke to the crew of the Titan a couple of weeks ago with how she spoke to her changeling attaché in No Win Scenario – and particularly how fearful she seemed and how quick she was to acquiesce when pushed. The changeling clearly has some degree of leverage over Vadic here; there’s a power imbalance. But what could it be? For the second time, I find myself saying that “money” will not be anywhere close to a satisfactory explanation!

Vadic’s boss. I vote that we name him “Floaty McFloatface.”

Villains don’t need to be sympathetic. We just talked about examples of wonderful villains in Star Trek who were nasty pieces of work through-and-through. I don’t need to feel that a villain has a good point in order to understand them. But a villain needs motivation, and right now, Vadic’s true motives are obscured through a thick narrative fog. If a suitable ending to her story has been planned, written, and properly executed, then there’s no need to worry. In time we’ll come to understand what Vadic wants and be able to enjoy her comeuppance when she doesn’t get it.

But I’m afraid that Picard’s track record in these areas is once again ringing alarm bells. Season 1 came totally unstuck because it ran out of road and an acceptable ending couldn’t be constructed in the remaining time allotted to the show. Season 2 had a plethora of issues, but the same problem of a rushed, unsatisfying ending that didn’t have time to tie up enough loose ends was repeated. And Season 2 had the same creative team and showrunner as Season 3. So as we approach the midpoint of the season, I look upon Vadic’s story in particular with more than a little concern. There’s no small amount of work to do to give this character a genuine reason for behaving the way she does while also pulling out a creditable ending.

Why do Vadic do what Vadic do?

That’s enough about Vadic for now. Another character who caused me mixed feelings in No Win Scenario was Captain Shaw – and there are several parts to his story. Some worked better than others, and I’ll start by saying that Shaw is a more interesting and nuanced character than I’d been expecting. There’s also an inspired performance from Todd Stashwick, who really seems to be putting his all into the standoffish Starfleet captain.

You know there’s a “but” coming, though.

But unfortunately, Shaw’s story in No Win Scenario was muddled in more ways than one. First of all, we have the problem I could see coming a mile away: there are too many captains aboard the Titan. Shaw’s injury in Seventeen Seconds was a convenient excuse to bump Riker into the captain’s chair – but that was always implied to be a very temporary move. Shaw’s recovery should have seen him reclaim the chair – especially given his obvious dislike of Riker and Picard. A convoluted story beat involving Shaw being literally the only officer on the Titan capable of performing a technobabble engineering task may have gone some way to excusing his absence on the bridge… but by the end of the episode I fully expected him to come bursting out of the turbolift to reclaim his ship.

Captain Shaw.

We’ve seen other Star Trek stories where more than one character holding the rank of captain was present on the same ship, and that doesn’t have to be an issue in and of itself. In The Wrath of Khan, for instance, we had Admiral Kirk and Captain Spock aboard the Enterprise, and by the time of The Undiscovered Country Sulu had also been promoted and was in command of his own ship. But in this particular story, the way Shaw is written and the uncertain nature of both Riker and Picard’s status as Starfleet or ex-Starfleet or semi-retired officers just makes it feel unnecessarily complicated.

If the reason for Shaw sticking around was to have a big blow-up with Picard about the Battle of Wolf-359 and Picard’s assimilation… then I’m afraid it didn’t stick the landing and wasn’t worth the fuss. This was supposed to be one of the emotional punches of No Win Scenario, and a sequence that explained much of Captain Shaw’s hostility since Picard first came aboard the ship. But I didn’t feel there was sufficient buildup to Shaw’s outburst, which left the resulting scene feeling like it came from nowhere – and with character drama that could rival any soap-opera.

Shaw hated Picard for his role in the Battle of Wolf-359.

In principle, this is a clever idea. It forces Picard to confront a part of his past that he’s still uncomfortable with, and he has to do it in front of Jack at a time when the two are just beginning to get to know one another. But the execution here wasn’t great, nor was the shoehorning in of the Guinan’s Bar set that Paramount seems to insist on re-using as often as possible.

A captain who hates Picard because of what happened at Wolf-359? Why does that sound familiar? Oh, right: it’s because this was also the setup for Benjamin Sisko at the beginning of Deep Space Nine more than thirty years ago. In short, we’ve seen this argument before. There are differences between Shaw and Sisko, of course; Sisko’s anger was more of a slow-burning thing, whereas Shaw’s was a rapid explosion – perhaps influenced by the pain medication he claimed to be taking. But while those differences keep the two sequences and two characters feeling distinct, the underlying premise is so similar as to feel incredibly familiar to any long-standing Star Trek fan.

We’ve been here before…

Picard’s third season promised to draw on the legacy of Deep Space Nine in a way that modern Star Trek hasn’t so far – and by introducing a rogue faction of changelings that Odo warned Worf about, the writers have created a truly engaging epilogue to the Deep Space Nine story. But Shaw’s background being nigh-on identical to Sisko’s feels like it crosses the line from homage into plagiarism, and while it gives us a reason to feel more sympathy for Shaw, or at least to understand him better, it also feels like a pretty cheap recycling of such an important story beat.

With no Borg presence readily apparent in the story of the season (though that could admittedly change), I’m also a little confused as to why the story keeps returning to Picard’s Borg past. We had multiple references to The Best of Both Worlds in the season premiere, and now we have this big reveal that Shaw was present at the Battle of Wolf-359 too… but at this point, which again is nearly halfway through the season, these references don’t seem to be going anywhere.

The Enterprise-D flies past wrecked ships after the Battle of Wolf-359.

In Seasons 1 and 2, Picard’s Borg connection – and the trauma it brought him – were big plot points. We had his first visit to a Borg cube in the Season 1 episode The Impossible Box, which contained a truly excellent sequence looking at Picard’s post-traumatic stress and how being back in that environment was a trigger. And in Season 2, we saw how Picard had grown in regard to the Borg, being willing to at least listen to a Borg proposal – something that later set the stage for Seven of Nine’s character arc, learning to accept the Borg side of herself.

In both cases, though, the Borg connection to current events was readily apparent. We had the Artifact in Season 1, which showed up in pre-season marketing before appearing in either the first or second episode of the season (I forget which exactly). And in Season 2, the very first episode re-introduced the Borg in truly spectacular fashion. Both stories set up their Borg elements early on, meaning that their subsequent Borg connections worked and felt meaningful. That sense just isn’t present here.

Picard confronted his Borg demons in Season 1.

Narratively, I don’t see what we gain by Shaw bringing up Picard’s Borg past, either. As mentioned, Picard has basically come to terms with what his assimilation experience means by this point – from The Next Generation episode Family, the Deep Space Nine premiere, the film First Contact, and episodes in Picard Seasons 1 and 2, we’ve seen him process different parts of this experience. I’m struggling to see what – if anything – has been gained or could be gained in future, in a story all about Jean-Luc Picard, by re-hashing this aspect of his life – especially by re-doing a storyline that we’ve already seen play out.

For Captain Shaw, of course, his outburst was almost certainly a cathartic release; the outpouring of emotions bottled up for more than three decades. But – and I don’t mean this unkindly – I don’t really care about Shaw at this stage. He’s a new character, someone who’s only been on screen for a few minutes in total until now, and while this revelation certainly tells us something in a strictly factual sense about his background, I’m just not feeling its necessity… not to this story, at any rate. With Sisko, who was about to take centre-stage in his own series, it made sense to detail this defining incident in his life to set up where he was going to go over the course of Deep Space Nine’s run. For Shaw, who may or may not have much of a role to play over the remaining six episodes of Picard… again, I just don’t see why it was necessary to take this diversion.

Captain Shaw told his story to Picard and Jack.

I said a couple of weeks ago that I understood why Captain Shaw had been basically subbed in for Chris Rios – the character from Seasons 1 and 2 who had been dumped by the series. But if this connection to The Best of Both Worlds and the grumpy, standoffish persona is the only real reason why Captain Shaw exists… then I think I’d rather have had Rios in the captain’s chair this time around. Creating a brand-new character only to essentially re-do part of the plot of Deep Space Nine’s Emissary just doesn’t feel substantial or satisfying. But perhaps I’m biased in the sense that I felt Rios was treated incredibly poorly by the writers for much of last season!

It’s also worth saying that Shaw may yet have more to contribute. I don’t hate him by any means, and I think he has potential in some ways to be an interesting character, and as someone who isn’t a natural friend to Picard, he introduces a bit of drama and conflict into the story that wouldn’t necessarily be present otherwise. What I am saying, though, is that if this is Shaw’s only big moment – his main contribution to the season’s story – then I’m underwhelmed.

Captain Shaw: grease monkey.

One thing that I absolutely adored about No Win Scenario was the alien-nursery anomaly that the Titan found itself trapped inside of. Nothing could feel more “Star Trek” than seeing a spacefaring lifeform give birth, and it harkened back to the events of the very first episode of The Next Generation – as the characters themselves noted in the episode.

The life-forms that were born as the nursery-nebula erupted were beautiful, too, and the CGI artists and animators deserve so much praise for bringing these creatures to life in such spectacular fashion. The whole idea from concept to execution felt like it had been lifted from a classic episode of The Original Series or The Next Generation, with the threat of Vadic fading into the background and a scientific mystery for Picard, Riker, and the Crushers to unravel.

The Titan surrounded by spacefaring life-forms.

However, there was one aspect of this story that didn’t work particularly well, and because of who it involves it feels like quite a disappointment. In The Next Generation, Dr Crusher didn’t always get enough screen time or a lot to do; her scenes were mainly in sickbay, so in episodes with no medical element, she wasn’t always able to make much of a contribution to the story. Her return in Picard – and particularly having been outside of Starfleet for twenty years, operating independently – is an opportunity to right a thirty-five-year-old wrong, and show Dr Crusher in somewhat of a new light. We saw the beginnings of that in the season premiere as she grabbed a phaser rifle to defend her ship… but this week felt like a regression to the way she’d been treated in The Next Generation – and I don’t mean that in any sense as a compliment.

No Win Scenario had its attention on several storylines at once. There was the Picard-Riker spat, the Picard-Shaw confrontation, Picard’s attempt to get to know Jack, and off to one side was Seven of Nine as she hunted a rogue changeling. Even with a fifty-five minute runtime, Dr Crusher once again felt sidelined.

Dr Crusher didn’t get as much screen time as I’d have liked to see.

This mattered not only because, well, I wanted and still want to see more of Dr Crusher, but because her condensed storyline ended up feeling like it skipped a beat… or more like a dozen beats. Dr Crusher seemed to take a completely irrational leap of logic from “these energy pulses are increasing in frequency” to “the nebula must be a womb,” and it happened in a matter of seconds. In The Next Generation era, this kind of storyline would have played out at least slightly slower, and would have been in focus for longer. Dr Crusher would still have arrived at the same end point, but it seemed like one heck of a contrivance for her to figure out exactly what was going on based on a single piece of evidence and a very shaky hypothesis that she concocted in a matter of seconds.

We’re seeing the consequence of a busy season here. Not only were Worf and Raffi entirely absent this week, but there’s still no sign of Geordi or Lore, and of the characters who were present, not all of them got enough time to shine. We had some fantastic moments with Riker, Picard, Jack, and even Seven and Captain Shaw… but Dr Crusher appears to have drawn the short straw. And not for the first time.

Dr Crusher seemed to figure out what was happening unrealistically quickly.

Last week, I said in my review that I was beginning to feel concerned that Geordi and Troi hadn’t shown up yet, and that Worf and Raffi were off to one side in their own little narrative box, unable to interact with the rest of the cast of characters – and this week’s episode has really ramped that up. I’m less worried about Lore, partly I have to say because I’ve never been a huge Lore fan, but also because Brent Spiner has already been a big part of Picard in its first two seasons. But I have been genuinely excited to welcome back Geordi, and to see Worf getting back together with his old crew.

With Dr Crusher having parts of her story cut this week – or, perhaps more likely, not written in the first place – I feel even more concern for this supposed reunion. Even if Geordi, Troi, and Lore join the story next week, and Worf and Raffi’s storyline finally crosses over with the Titan’s, we’ll still have spent basically half the season without them. And based on what we saw with Dr Crusher this week… I’m not convinced that the writers will have given everyone enough to do.

We still haven’t seen Geordi and Lore, nor had more than a cameo from Troi.

In these truncated ten-episode seasons that have become commonplace not only in Star Trek, but in modern streaming series in general, there’s such a thing as too many characters and too many storylines. That’s part of the reason why, despite my objections, the likes of Soji and Elnor were dropped and didn’t come back this time around: there simply wasn’t space for them in an already-crowded series.

But having promised us a reunion, and talked about how characters who didn’t always get enough to do in The Next Generation might finally have an opportunity to contribute… Season 3 hasn’t yet delivered. Those ideas remain incredibly appealing, but it’s at the very least worth noting that we’re 40% of the way through and they haven’t happened yet. Not only that, but at points where characters could have been used and where this feeling could have materialised – as with Dr Crusher this week – it didn’t work as well as it should’ve.

Dr Crusher with Jack and Picard.

After we saw how Captain Shaw was unkind to and even deadnaming Seven of Nine, it was nice to see them working together and developing their very own kind of begrudging rapport. We haven’t really seen in Star Trek this kind of adversarial dynamic between captain and XO, with such unpleasantness and genuine dislike between them, at least not outside of a handful of one-off guest characters like Jellico. So it’s an interesting element to add to the story – and one that did manage to get a cathartic payoff as No Win Scenario reached its climax.

There was also a reason, of a sort, for the deadnaming, which had been an uncomfortable element earlier in the season. I stand by what I said, though: this kind of deadnaming should be socially unacceptable in Star Trek’s optimistic future, and while it served a narrative function in more ways than one, it’s still deeply uncomfortable in terms of what it says about the state of the Federation and the Star Trek galaxy.

The deadnaming of Seven of Nine got a narrative payoff… but still feels uncomfortable.

But the deadnaming of Seven of Nine provided a satisfying end to the changeling infiltration storyline – one which, again, succeeded at recapturing that elusive sense of “Star Trek.” Seven was able to figure out who the changeling was posing as, partly by working with Riker and partly because she’d developed friendships with other members of the crew – in this case, Ensign La Forge.

One contrivance here that I guess we’ll have to overlook is the changeling’s objective. If they wanted to ensure Jack Crusher’s capture – as Vadic’s changeling “boss” seemed to suggest is their main mission – then why on earth would the changeling wish to sabotage the Titan’s escape from certain death in the gravity well of a nebula? I could believe that they would place the success of their mission ahead of their own survival, but in terms of what we know about the changelings’ objective at this stage, if capturing Jack is priority #1, then the infiltrator shouldn’t have been trying to sabotage the Titan’s escape. We learned this week that Vadic only broke off her pursuit last time because she feared for the safety of her ship, not because killing Jack or trapping the Titan were important objectives, so again: the changeling infiltrator’s motives don’t really make a lot of sense here.

Why would the changeling try to prevent the Titan’s escape if doing so meant their own death and the death of Jack Crusher?

I can overlook this point, as in the context of the story it isn’t massive and is basically a glorified nitpick, but I think it’s worth taking note of these things as they arise. One or two contrivances here and there are almost inevitable – but too many risks damaging the overall integrity of the narrative, so keeping it to a minimum is essential in order to maintain suspension of disbelief.

The way in which the story as a whole was set up this week was again something that harkened back to The Next Generation and even The Original Series – the ship being adrift, trapped by an unknown space phenomenon, with time running out. Those are Star Trek tropes as old as the franchise itself! But the way in which No Win Scenario put a twist on them was unique – and very dark.

The Titan “sinking” into the nebula.

Instead of this story immediately leading to the crew springing into action and preparing their escape, there was a defeatist tone from the very first scene of the episode. Riker in particular was very bleak in the first half of the episode, sinking into dejection and depression as he couldn’t figure out a way to save the ship and crew.

This spin on a classic formula was incredibly well handled, and in many ways feels a lot more realistic than any episodes in those earlier Star Trek series. One thing that Star Trek hasn’t always managed to convey is just how deadly and dangerous space can be – and we saw firsthand this week that it’s possible for even an advanced Federation starship to find itself in an impossible situation. Past Star Trek stories succeeded at conveying a sense of danger, but there was always a positive, optimistic approach – never the kind of “lay down and wait to die” mentality that seemed pervasive on the Titan in parts of No Win Scenario. Yet it makes perfect sense that some people would react that way – and it perfectly fits the darker tone that Picard has when compared to The Next Generation.

Riker was one of the defeatists earlier in the episode.

We talked a little about how Picard has arguably already overcome much of his Borg-related trauma, or at least how we’ve seen him engaged in that process in both Picard and earlier Star Trek productions. One thing that we haven’t always seen is Picard asking for help, reaching out to someone else and saying that he needs them – but we got that through his scenes with Jack this week.

When facing what seemed to be imminent death, Picard asked Jack to spend some time with him, and as they talked, it became clear that Picard wasn’t doing it for Jack’s sake – but for his own. To hear him articulate that was deeply emotional, and both Sir Patrick Stewart and Ed Speleers excelled in that moment. This was, from their point of view, perhaps the only opportunity they were going to get to have this conversation – or any conversation, for that matter – and it was important for Picard to at least ask some of those questions of Jack, and to try to reach out to him.

Jack agreed to share a drink with Picard.

Picard had indicated earlier, I think in last week’s episode, that he felt the bridges between himself and Jack had long ago been burned, but it was great to see Riker encouraging him – albeit with the threat of death spurring them on – to give it a try. As his life seemed to be ending, Picard hoped to spend a moment or two with the son he never knew, and there’s something touching about that. Likewise, for Jack to reciprocate that, even if it was only for a moment, was something very sweet.

Male relationships – and the relationships men have with their fathers – can be difficult, and are often defined by a lack of emotion or warmth. Although I now identify as non-binary, I was assigned male at birth, and I can say from my own experience that my relationship with my father has never been warm, emotional, or loving. My father and I can make small-talk, sure, but he would never have a heart-to-heart with me about, well, anything… and the best I can hope for from him has always been a firm handshake.

Daddy issues…

What I’m trying to say is that, for many men, there may be something cathartic about a scene like the one between Picard and Jack. A father and son having a genuine and deeply emotional conversation is something that a lot of folks frankly just don’t get in their personal lives, and even though Picard’s relationship with Jack is new – and pretty complicated – there’s still something about it that brings almost a sense of emotional release.

Jean-Luc Picard is, for many of us, a kind of “space dad;” a character we’ve known for decades and who has often, through his position in the captain’s chair, felt like the patriarch of a family. I often wished I could be a part of that family when I watched The Next Generation in the early ’90s. So to see this conversation between Jack and Picard… I felt a very strong connection with Jack in those moments.

Jack felt very relatable this week.

I won’t lie, though, it still gave me a bit of a giggle to see Picard asking Jack whether he was 23 or 24. I don’t like to keep bringing this up (the show rather forces it upon us) but actor Ed Speleers, who plays Jack, simply does not pass for someone in his early twenties any more. It’s perhaps not quite as bad as some of those “teen” dramedies from the ’70s or ’80s in which actors in their thirties and sometimes even forties were trying – and utterly failing – to play teenagers… but it’s not far off. It’s no slight against the actor – I’m sure I couldn’t pass for thirty any more, let alone twenty… but I know my limitations so I wouldn’t try!

Picard clearly offended Jack several years earlier, as we saw in that flashback scene. One thing about that bugged me a little, and that’s how it seems to conflict with Picard’s status as a “hermit” in that period. Having retired and left Starfleet behind, it just strikes me as odd that he’d go halfway across the world to eat lunch at an establishment that he must’ve known would be frequented by Starfleet cadets and personnel.

Jack in the flashback scene.

But Picard’s sentiment that he considered Starfleet his “real” family obviously stung Jack, who was potentially considering reaching out to his father in that moment. I couldn’t tell, as the episode came to an end, whether Picard was finally realising that he’d seen Jack before… or whether that moment really is just something he doesn’t recall. Either way, I’m sure it’ll come up in a future episode as a sore spot; based on what Jack said in Disengage, he clearly carries some degree of resentment toward Picard – and that moment may be the crux of it.

So that only really leaves us with Riker, who, as mentioned, seemed to fall into a pretty deep depression this week. The story of the last two episodes has wanted to contrast Picard with Riker, first in their differing approaches to battling the Shrike and then this week as they tried to wrangle with the difficult situation the Titan found itself in. Taking the loss of Riker’s son – something we first learned about back in Season 1 – as a starting point, I think No Win Scenario built up a genuinely engaging new chapter for Riker’s story.

Riker’s story felt important and meaningful.

One of the challenges that a series like Picard faces comes from legacy characters. How can someone like Riker get an epilogue that’s both worth exploring in a narrative sense and that takes him to new thematic places without shaking him up so much that he doesn’t feel like the same person any more? The way in which Riker’s story unfolded over the past few weeks has actually mirrored Picard’s – especially from the show’s first season.

Picard faced defeat when Starfleet shut down his Romulan rescue mission, and instead of continuing to fight, he gave up. He went into (relatively) quiet retirement and left the galaxy to fend for itself. This week, we saw the same thing with Riker. He had the additional motive of wanting to preserve the wreck of the Titan so he could send one last message to Troi – but fundamentally, the same idea of falling into depression when confronted with a seemingly unsolvable problem was present.

Picard has been here too…

As I said in Season 1, what makes such stories meaningful isn’t where the characters begin, but where the journey takes them. And so it proved again with Riker – he found a reason to hope, a reason to try again, and through the whole experience of danger and trauma, he emerged out the other side with a newfound sense of purpose, reaching out to Troi to recommit to their relationship and to working on his personal issues and the issues they jointly had been facing. It’s by no means identical to what Picard went through in Season 1 – but it took him from a similarly dark place to find light at the end of the tunnel.

There is real value in showing heroic characters facing moments of self-doubt and depression. I wrote an entire essay a couple of years ago about how well this worked with Luke Skywalker over in the Star Wars franchise, and while Riker’s story was shorter and didn’t go into as much depth as Picard’s did in Season 1, for all of those same reasons I felt it worked well in No Win Scenario. It was understandable that Riker would feel the way he did – but it was also an inspiring story as we got to see him find a spark of hope and use that to regain at least some of his lost confidence.

How a story like this starts isn’t nearly as important as where it takes us…

So let’s start to wrap things up. No Win Scenario wasn’t as good as Seventeen Seconds had been last week. It crammed a lot in – and seems to have brought to a close the first chapter of Season 3’s story – but it skipped one whole storyline entirely, cut down Dr Crusher’s involvement to a mere contrivance, and had a couple of moments of soap-opera-level dialogue that just didn’t fit with the dark tone of the rest of the story.

However, it was a Star Trek episode through-and-through, one that recaptured much of the magic of The Next Generation era – but still found a way to update the formula, giving it a new spin fit for a streaming series in 2023. There were some deeply emotional, cathartic moments with Picard and Jack, an interesting twist in Captain Shaw’s story that led to a reconciliation of sorts with Seven, and some great CGI and visual effects to bring the starships, the nebula, and the spacefaring critters to life. I had fun with No Win Scenario in more ways than one.

A few scattered final thoughts:

  • Could Vadic also be a veteran of Wolf-359? I’ll expand on this idea in my next theory post!
  • Why didn’t the changeling either vaporise or revert to their liquid state when Seven killed them?
  • Too bad there’s already a “Riker manoeuvre,” because that’s what we could’ve called that tractor-beam/asteroid attack!
  • It was interesting to learn that the changeling was already aboard the Titan… makes me wonder how many rogue changelings are out there, and whether there may be more aboard other vessels.
  • Paramount is obviously trying to get its money’s worth out of the Ten-Forward bar set…
  • The actors playing the bridge crew each got a line or two of dialogue this week, which was nice to see.
  • Picard is still ridiculously dark and under-lit, and I wish they’d fix that. I needed to turn up the brightness on several of the still frames used in this review to compensate.

Star Trek: Picard Seasons 1-3 are available to stream now on Paramount+ in the United States and other countries and territories where the service is available, and on Amazon Prime Video in the UK and around the world. The Star Trek franchise – including Picard and all other properties discussed above – is the copyright of Paramount Global. This article contains the thoughts and opinions of one person only and is not intended to cause any offence.